Put your money where your hindsight is – week 4 of 4: The Results

And now the end is near, and so I (this series) face the final curtain. Over 4 weeks, I have made predictions and brutally assessed them afterwards. Some predictions have been good, others have not.

I give the predictions confidence ratings 1-5 (5 being most confident), and this week’s predictions, made last Thursday, are here. Then, I give them a rating based on how ‘expert’ my knowledge had to be to make that prediction (for longer definitions check out the first week’s results here).

1 – Coin-flip.

2 – Basic.

3 – Some.

4 – Advanced.

5 – Expert.

After that, I give them a rating based on how accurate they were.

1 – Nope.

2 – In my defence…

3 – Kinda.

4 – Mostly.

5 – Dead on.

I then take these two scores and add them together. Then I’ll look at my confidence rating, and subtract it from the accuracy rating – if the result is a minus number (ie I was sure it would happen but it didn’t), then I’ll knock that number off the preliminary score. Acros the three weeks I have scored 4.5, 2.33, and 4.75 out of 10, so hopefully I’ll do a bit better this time around.

 

Prediction 1: Sturridge plays a more central role against Tottenham than he did against Burnley

Confidence rating: 2

Expert rating: 1

Accuracy rating: 1

Yeah. I assumed Klopp would go back on his words, for some reason. To put up a slight (bad) defence for myself, I also noted that he might just be sick of Sturridge being injured and/or moaning, and so stick him out wide again as punishment. He didn’t do this, but he did drop him to the bench, which is basically the same thing, right? Well, no.

Prediction score: 1/10 (1+1, -1)

 

Prediction 2: Manchester United scrape past Hull and there’s an awful lot of fretting about the wheels coming off the Mourinho bus (not, surprisingly, an intentional reference to it being parked).

Confidence rating: 2

Expert rating: 3

Accuracy rating: 2.5

I was right about Hull putting up a good fight against United and United somewhat struggling to win the game. Hull, as predicted, were disciplined and well set up, but United’s shortcomings weren’t as apparent (in my opinion) as I thought they might have been. There also doesn’t seem to be much fretting about the wheels coming off the Mourinho bus.

Prediction score: 5.5 (3+2.5, +-0)

 

Weekly average: 3.25/10

Series average: 3.7/10

Yeah, not great. My criteria/judging was deliberately harsh, but I would have still hoped to do better than this really. Still, it was worth doing.

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