Put your money where your hindsight is – Week 3: The Results

A reminder of how this goes. I make predictions and give them confidence ratings 1-5 (5 being most confident) – this week’s predictions, made last Thursday, are here. Then, after the weekend’s games, I assess my judgement. Firstly, I give them a rating based on how ‘expert’ my knowledge had to be to make that prediction (for longer definitions check out the first week’s results here).

1 – Coin-flip.

2 – Basic.

3 – Some.

4 – Advanced.

5 – Expert.

Then, I give the predictions a rating based on how accurate they were.

1 – Nope.

2 – In my defence…

3 – Kinda.

4 – Mostly.

5 – Dead on.

I then take these two scores and add them together. Then I’ll look at my confidence rating, and subtract it from the accuracy rating – if the result is a minus number (ie I was sure it would happen but it didn’t), then I’ll knock that number off the preliminary score. I scored 4.5/10 on average in the first week and 2.33/10 in the second, so hopefully I’ll do a bit better this time around.

 

Prediction 1: Arsenal, unless they play a stupidly high line, won’t look anywhere near as vulnerable against Leicester as they did against Liverpool

Confidence rating: 4

Expert rating: 2.5

Accuracy rating: 3

My justification for this prediction went on for four paragraphs in Thursday’s predictions post, so it was more of an in-depth prediction than the half-speculative punt it might otherwise seem to be. Even so, I don’t really think it deserves to be classed as much higher than basic, so I broke my own scoring system to give it a 2.5 expert rating.

I was kind of right (mostly right, probably, but again the simplicity of the prediction is stopping me from giving it too high a score) – Arsenal didn’t look hugely vulnerable very often, but there were notable instances where they looked a bit defensively unstable. These were mainly caused by Vardy runs or coming off second-best in 1v1 scenarios, rather than a particular structural issue or flaw in a tactical match-up.

Prediction score: 4.5/10 (2.5+3, -1)

 

Prediction 2: Southampton will be a worthy test for United, but won’t seriously threaten them.

Confidence rating: 3

Expert rating: 2

Accuracy rating: 3

Southampton threatened a little more than I thought they would on the break, but were largely the defensively-minded tough opponent I expected them to be. They felt a bit like the kind of team United need to play in order to learn how to break teams down, and it was a bit of a shame (in this regard) that United scored from a great Ibrahimovic header and were gifted a penalty by Clasie.

Most people could have probably told you that Southampton would be a difficult team to break down but struggle a little in attack though, and that’s both why the ‘expert’ rating is low and why I was reluctant to give the accuracy rating higher than a 3, as the prediction is basic and vague enough not to deserve it.

Prediction score: 5/10 (2+3, +-0)

 

 

Week 3 average: 4.75/10

It’s not bad, but it’s mediocre, and contained only two predictions. The 4-week trial of this series is nearly at an end and probably won’t extend, in part because it’s difficult to make short-term predictions week-to-week when there is so much randomness involved (and partly due to poor performance and lack of knowledge levels too). I am slightly pleased that over these 3 weeks I’ve made predictions on 7/8 teams instead of keeping in a 2-3 team comfort zone.

 

—-

Weekly averages:

Week 1 – 4.5/10

Week 2 – 2.33/10

Week 3 – 4.75/10

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