Put your money where your hindsight is – week 2 of 4: The Results

A reminder of how this goes. I make predictions and give them confidence ratings 1-5 (5 being most confident) – this week’s predictions, made last Thursday, are here. Then, after the weekend’s games, I assess my judgement. Firstly, I give them a rating based on how ‘expert’ my knowledge had to be to make that prediction (for longer definitions check out the first week’s results here).

1 – Coin-flip.

2 – Basic.

3 – Some.

4 – Advanced.

5 – Expert.

Then, I give the predictions a rating based on how accurate they were.

1 – Nope.

2 – In my defence…

3 – Kinda.

4 – Mostly.

5 – Dead on.

I then take these two scores and add them together. Then I’ll look at my confidence rating, and subtract it from the accuracy rating – if the result is a minus number (ie I was sure it would happen but it didn’t), then I’ll knock that number off the preliminary score. So then.

 

Prediction 1: Chelsea will dominate central midfield against West Ham but will be vulnerable on the counter.

Confidence rating: 4

Expert rating: 3

Accuracy rating: 1

I got this wrong. I could argue that my prediction matched what I saw from several pre-season games and that, based on that, I stand by it despite what actually happened. And I kinda do. But Chelsea didn’t dominate centrally, and nor were they particularly vulnerable to counter-attacks. West Ham set up to force Chelsea wide and Chelsea obliged. They looked to attack quickly rather than engage in slow build-up, which might have made opposition counters more deadly.

That’s the good thing about being wrong though, I/we’ve now seen more variations in how the teams will set-up and how they might react to others.

Prediction score: 1/10 (3+1, -3)

 

Prediction 2: Play the inverted full-back drinking game – it’ll get you hammered by next week (actually, it may take a few weeks)

Confidence rating: 3

Expert rating: 2

Accuracy rating: 3

It took a basic understanding of things Guardiola likes to do, and did in pre-season, to guess that he’d implement inverted full-backs at City. It was already a low-level buzzword on Twitter before the match, and afterwards it’s been discussed in most outlets. Not *quite* enough of a buzzword to get you hammered if you were, for some reason, to use it as a drinking game, and it was a pretty easy prediction to make, really.

Prediction score: 5/10 (2+3, +-0)

 

Prediction 3: Koeman’s Everton – Play from the back and protecting the midfield band is key

Confidence rating: 4

Expert rating: 3

Accuracy rating: 1

Everton didn’t really set themselves up like I had expected them to. They dropped off an awful lot more in midfield, looking like they were sticking their two attacking midfielders in a loose man-marking of Dier and Wanyama, with a mix of zonal and looser (but still noticeable) man-marking elsewhere too. It contributed to make them look quite porous. They also played the ball longer than I thought they would.

I was tempted to give myself an accuracy rating of 2, because the man-focussed defending on Dier and Wanyama was, technically, a way of protecting the midfield band, but I’d envisaged something more structured and zonal. I had to be honest, and this prediction was about as accurate as the Chelsea one.

Prediction score: 1/10 (3+1, -3)

 

Week 2 average: 2.33/10

Yeah. That’s terrible. I made predictions based off pre-season games but didn’t think enough about how teams would react to each other. I had an inkling that Conte would change his side to face West Ham, and Koeman to face Spurs, but not about what they would do. Which is a big, and important, lack of insight.

It’s worse average than last week. However, (and this might just be self-preservation) I wouldn’t say that I was going backwards, because these were generally more detailed predictions and on teams I had less of a background of. Time to look at next weekend’s fixtures and do some severe brushing up though.


Weekly averages:

Week 1 – 4.5/10

Week 2 – 2.33/10

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