Put your money where your hindsight is – 1b of 4: The Results

Last Thursday I started a short series where I’ll be making short term predictions each week and then brutally assessing how badly I did. Each prediction (if you don’t want to go back and read the article to refresh your memory) gets a confidence rating out of 5:

1 – Guess

2 – Hunch

3 – Waver

4 – Confident

5 – Bet

With the results, I’ll give two grades. The first is for how much ‘expert’ knowledge it would take me to make the prediction in the first place:

1 – Coin-flip. I may as well have just flipped a coin to make this prediction, it basically shows no skill at all.

2 – Basic. Some basic knowledge required, though nothing major. Prediction may have been vague too.

3 –  Some. More insight than your average Joe off the street; if you pointed out something that required this level of knowledge it’d be met with an interested ‘oh’, but they probably wouldn’t be impressed, per se.

4 – Advanced. A level of knowledge that demands respect, but may not command payment just yet.

5 – Expert. The kind of insight you would pay for.

 

There will then be an ‘accuracy’ rating, to judge whether my predictions were correct.

1 – Nope. Didn’t come true, might not even have been close.

2 – In my defence…. It didn’t quite come true, but I stand by making it either for radically unexpected circumstances or for glimpses of something I saw which was what I predicted.

3 – Kinda. It kinda happened. Kinda didn’t.

4 – Mostly. I was generally right in what I thought would happen.

5 – Dead on. Says it all – I was dead on.

 

Then, some maths. After giving each individual score I’ll add them up (eg ‘Some’ + ‘Mostly’ = 7) BUT THEN I’ll look back at my confidence rating. If my confidence rating was higher than the accuracy rating, I’ll subtract the difference. Example:

I predicted X to happen with Confident (4) certainty.

The prediction required Advanced knowledge (4) but only Kinda happened (3).

Advanced+Kinda = 7.

Confident(4) is a higher rating than Kinda(3), so Confident minus Kinda = -1.

7 minus 1 = 6. (4+3, -1)

 

Got it?

Here we go.

 

Prediction 1: Leicester line up 4-4-2 in the Community Shield with a higher line than usual.

Confidence rating: 4

Expert rating: 3

Accuracy rating: 3

Leicester lined up in the similar 4-4-2 as they did last season, but most people would have guessed that. They seemed to have a slightly higher line at times, but not one that was noticeably so, and they retreated further back as the game went on.

Prediction score: 5/10 (3+3, -1)

 

Prediction 2: United struggle (in the Community Shield match).

Confidence rating: 3

Expert rating: 2

Accuracy rating: 3

I was tempted to give this an Accuracy rating of 4 but decided to downgrade it as some of the struggling was due to the line-up. The mixture of Carrick’s immobility and Fellaini’s relative deficiencies in build-up were not a good mixture as a central midfield 2. Rooney and Ibrahimovic also both like to drop deep, which hindered United in attack at times too. But I was mostly right in thinking that United would not be hugely effective in attack – Lingard’s goal was individual beauty, Zlatan’s was good, but for large chunks of the game it didn’t look too different from United of old.

Prediction score: 5/10 (2+3, +-0)

 

Prediction 3: Pogba won’t sign between now and when I write the results up next Monday.

Confidence rating: 1

Expert rating: 1

Accuracy rating: 1

I’m writing the first draft of this late on Sunday/early on Monday (while watching some of the Rio Olympics) and he hasn’t *actually* signed yet, although this is a bit of a technicality. United put out a statement saying Juventus had agreed to let him have a medical, which basically means that the deal is as good as done. This was a filler and no better than what that bloke down the pub who pisses you off by saying that everything is offside/a yellow/a pen/a dive could have done. I’ll see if anything changes before I publish, but I’m giving myself an Accuracy rating of 1 anyway, so it doesn’t really matter.

Monday update: It’s noon, Pogba’s apparently just touched down in Manchester. The perpetual 48 hours goes on, or as Spielverlagerung says: ‘Pogbaperpetualzweitagelänger’.

Prediction rating: 2/10 (1+1, +-0)

 

Prediction 4 (non-Community Shield edition): Racing Club de Strasbourg will mark their first home game back in Ligue 2 with a win.

Confidence rating: 3

Expert rating: 3

Accuracy rating: 3

Downgrading the Expert rating from a 4 (where I think there could be an argument for giving) to a 3, as it was a single game prediction. Anyone can guess that a team will win a game, and single game predictions aren’t what this is supposed to be about. Even though Strasbourg did win, I’m only giving an Accuracy rating of a 3 because it wasn’t wholly convincing – they scored with their only shot on target (although limited opponents Amiens to 0, and didn’t have to exert themselves after Amiens went down to 10 men late in the first half). The balance of the game was fairly equal, all things considered, and the victory certainly could (and should) have been more convincing.

Prediction score: 6/10 (3+3, +-0)

 

Week 1 average: 4.5/10

That’s not a great start, really. Fairly mediocre both on the accuracy of the predictions and the level of knowledge required to make them. The start of the major European leagues this coming weekend will allow a larger scope of predictions though, so hopefully I will be able to offer more for the next round.

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4 thoughts on “Put your money where your hindsight is – 1b of 4: The Results

  1. Pingback: Put your money where your hindsight is – week 2 of 4: The Predictions | Every Team Needs A Ron

  2. Pingback: Put your money where your hindsight is – week 2 of 4: The Results | Every Team Needs A Ron

  3. Pingback: Put your money where your hindsight is – Week 3: The Results | Every Team Needs A Ron

  4. Pingback: Put your money where your hindsight is – week 4 of 4: The Results | Every Team Needs A Ron

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