As you may have seen either on Twitter or on Eastbridge Sports Betting, I’ve recently been introducing a way of using stats to poke you in the direction of which matches to watch if you happen to have a selection available to you.
This ‘LVG Index’ (a working title, for LeaVe these Games, and NOT AT ALL because it will generally end up recommending avoiding watching LVG United games) isn’t to tell you what is fun and what is not, but collects statistical attacks, shots, and goals together.
The ‘Verdict’ of whether to watch matches is subjective on my part based on the numbers. I tend to subjectively weight my statistical attacks (explained further here: https://everyteamneedsaron.com/2015/11/08/extending-the-chain-of-conversion/) more than shots, which is why Liverpool-Leicester is a ‘WATCH’ but City-Sunderland is a ‘Probably watch’. The expected home/away swing is there too in case you particularly like/want to keep away from one team steamrolling another.
There are no guarantees, and it’s pretty basic, but I think it’s a little interesting and maybe a little useful. Lemme know what you think.
The stats for statistical attacks, shots, and goals are all season averages (calculating statistical attacks is explained in the article linked above). I then calculate the number of each stats ‘expected’ for each team (one team’s for is another team’s against, which saves a little time) thusly:
Team A’s average shots for
(Team B’s average shots against [plus] League average shots against)
I then give a home field advantage for each (well, I add a small amount onto the home team and take the same for the away team). For goals this is 0.4 (0.2 added and subtracted) because of this article, for shots on target it is 1 (0.5 on each side) and for shots it’s 3.5 because of this article. A little later today @FormIsVariance gave a similar number for difference in total shot numbers for home vs away teams over the last 6 Premier League seasons. For statistical attacks it’s 17.5, because the conversion from attacks to shots a little over 20% according to the league average, so I figured I’d multiply the total shots home advantage by 5 (I think this makes sense).
For the home/away swing I just take the home figure and divide it by the home+away figure for each of the stats, minus 0.5 so that a minus number is an away swing, and add them up for each of the four categories. I’ve toyed with the idea of weighting the stats, or excluding some, but I figured I would need to do proper work to work out which of these to do that may just be overcomplicating the idea (I’m aware that I’ll be counting twice, as each goal is a shot on target is a shot is a statistical attack).
I think that’s everything. If you’ve got any feedback on the stats side or the visual side or the point of view of the ‘consumer’ then just let me know.